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<Research>Daiwa Downgrades MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK) to Hold, Slashes TP to $427
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MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK) faced potential downward valuation reassessment, affected by the slowdown in future earnings growth, while its second growth engine (overseas market/Lucky Cup) has yet to be validated, Daiwa published a research report saying.

Therefore, the broker downgraded MIXUE GROUP from Outperform to Hold, and lowered its valuation basis from a projected 2026 PE ratio of 28x to 22x, with its target price slashed from $535 to $427.

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After the subsidy wave, MIXUE GROUP's same-store sales growth remained resilient, and network expansion may provide some support, Daiwa stated. However, the broker believed that the market may have overly high expectations for the second growth engine.

Daiwa thought MIXUE GROUP's mass market positioning limits product innovation and pricing flexibility compared to mid-tier enterprises like GUMING (01364.HK) and Luckin Coffee.

In terms of business model and long-term moat, MIXUE GROUP is more like TINGYI (00322.HK) than NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK), Daiwa added. MIXUE GROUP has a strong franchisee network, penetration in lower-tier cities and supply chain advantages, resembling TINGYI's extensive distribution channels.

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