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UBS Cuts CN 2025 Econ Growth Forecast to 3.4%, Expects PBOC to Drop RRR as Soon as Apr
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UBS lowered its forecast for China's economic growth from 4% to 3.4% this year, and kept its 2026 forecast at 3%, both the most pessimistic of the major banks, largely reflecting US tariffs suppressing China's export performance.

Furthermore, UBS estimated that the Chinese government's fiscal stimulus measures will boost GDP by as much as 2 ppts, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and helping enterprises and households cope with the tariff shock.

Related NewsRetail Sales YoY for March in China is 5.9%, higher than the previous value of 4.0%. The forecast was 4.2%.
UBS believed that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will cut interest rates by at least 30-40 bps, and will begin dropping RRR as soon as April.
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