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<Research>M Stanley Cuts BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) TP to $126, Reduces Sales & Earnings Estimates
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Morgan Stanley, in its report, lowered BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)'s sales forecasts for 2025-27 by 1%/ 2%/ 3% to 4.6 million/ 5.2 million/ 5.8 million units. This adjustment reflected the decline in domestic demand due to escalated rivalry and the increase in NEV purchase tax in 2026.

In line with the reduced ASP assumptions, revenue forecasts for 2025-27 were lowered by 4%. Besides, the gross margin forecasts for 2025-27 were revised down by 0.5 ppts to 18.1%, 0.5 ppts to 18.5%, and 0.4 ppts to 18.9%, reflecting ongoing competition and lower margin overseas as offshore production ramped up.

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Based on these adjustments, the broker trimmed BYD's net profit and EPS forecasts for 2025-27 by 7%/ 8%/ 7%. It expected unit profit to be RMB7,400/ RMB8,200/ RMB9,400 for 2025-27. The target price was reduced from HKD130 to HKD126. The rating was Overweight.
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