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G Sachs Lifts CN GDP Growth & Export Forecast, Expects PBOC Rate Cut in 4Q
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Goldman Sachs revised up its forecast for China's economic growth and exports, in light of China's efforts to enhance manufacturing competitiveness and export levels, foreign media reported. The recently passed 15th Five-Year Plan and the de-escalation of Sino-American trade tensions are key factors driving the adjustment in outlook, demonstrating market confidence in China's leadership economic strategy. Given the increase in global market share, Goldman Sachs predicted that China's exports will achieve annual growth of 5-6%. This expansion trend was expected to sharply boost China's overall economic development in the coming years. In view of the Chinese government's determination to achieve economic goals and the recent acceleration in fiscal spending, the broker raised its forecast for China's actual GDP growth rate in 2025 from 4.9% to 5%. Looking at the longer-term prospects, Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for China's actual GDP growth rates in 2026 and 2027 from the previous estimates of 4.3% and 4.0% to 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively. Such adjustments are mainly attributed to stronger export growth forecasts. Goldman Sachs also expected China to continue advancing monetary easing policies, with a possible policy rate cut of 10 bps in 4Q25, and another 10 bps reduction in 2Q26. Additionally, fiscal expansion and accelerated credit growth were envisioned. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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