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RBA: Baseline Forecast Sees Policy Rate Rising to 4.7% by Year-end
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.35%. After revising up its short-term inflation outlook, the central bank now expects, under its baseline ...
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RBA: Baseline Forecast Sees Policy Rate Rising to 4.7% by Year-end
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.35%. After revising up its short-term inflation outlook, the central bank now expects, under its baseline forecast, the policy rate to rise to 4.7% by the end of this year, up from the previous estimate of 4.2%. Inflation is projected to return to the midpoint of the target range by mid-2028.

The RBA stated that, under its baseline assumption that oil prices will gradually ease over the coming quarters, headline inflation is expected to peak at 4.8% in mid-year, higher than the previous forecast of 4.2%, while underlying inflation is projected to remain above 3% until mid-next year.

Due to rising fuel prices and a higher projected interest rate path, the RBA lowered its economic growth forecasts for Australia. Growth by mid-year is now projected at 1.9%, down from 2.1%, while the year-end growth forecast was revised down to 1.3% from 1.8%. (mn/u)~

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